Fantastic Football Online 2352164995

As nearly every professional bettor will tell you, backing heavy favourites is a sure fire way to the poorhouse. That's common knowledge, right? Perhaps, but there is one problem with that sort of thinking: it's dead wrong.

The received wisdom will be the linesmakers skew their odds on heavy favourites because the public love betting on the top teams. The bookies undoubtedly see a flurry of parlays involving clubs like Chelsea, Barcelona and Juventus every weekend. Surely there's value in taking the underdog in these situations, isn't there?

In reality, numerous research has shown that blindly backing long shots is a losing proposition within the long-term. To find out why that is the situation, we have to discover how a bookmaker operates. Since the bookies take most of their action on short-priced favourites, it's often assumed they are exposed to big liabilities if all of the hot teams win. While this is sometimes the case, and several bookmakers suffer months of huge losses, there are several ways a sports bookie can protect himself.

It's vital to take into account that most heavy favourites are combined in parlays involving at least three teams. A bookmaker only needs one loser to take his customer's money. Therefore, there's little need to lower the odds on a "public" team. Many sportsbooks will even inflate the odds of a hot favourite to attract new customers, safe in the knowledge that parlay players will not hurt their bottom line.

In the event the favourite's odds are an accurate reflection of it's true probability of winning, the bookmaker must make adjustments elsewhere. That usually means offering worse odds on the underdog and also the draw. Comprehending the concept of theoretical hold could make this clearer.

When creating lines, a sportsbook will offer odds on each team which provide it a slight edge, ensuring a profit no matter how the game turns out. This is called the Theoretical Hold and is expressed as a percentage. It represents the combined quantity of customers' bets that the bookmaker expects to keep.

It's called theoretical because in reality a bookmaker rarely has balanced action on all sides. If a bookie takes the majority of his bets on a heavy favourite, he can offer it at a far more generous price and accept a smaller profit margin. Short-priced favourites generally have small margins, but high volumes. Bigger odds mean bigger margins. There's little incentive for a bookie to offer competitive odds on a big underdog if he will not expect much betting interest in that team.